Market Opportunity – Influenza:

Antiviral Medications

Tamiflu© has captured the majority of market sales since its launch. The sales of Tamiflu© as reported by Roche in annual reports have been $1.3 billion in 2005, approximately $560 million in 2008, and increased to nearly $ 1 billion in the third quarter of 2009 due to the outbreak of a new pandemic H1N1 flu. With the exception of 2009 and the H1N1 flu pandemic, sales of existing flu antivirals (including Tamiflu©) have been on the decline due to emerging viral resistance to the drugs. The sales potential for a new agent effective against influenza is believed to be significant. Tamiflu© has been used in only about 20%-40% of flu case in the U.S., suggesting a market potential of $3-$5 Billion annually in non-pandemic years. Epidemiological models from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention project 18-42 million outpatient physician visits, 314,000-734,000 hospital admissions, and up to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. alone from the next influenza pandemic. The negative impact on the U.S. economy is projected at $166 Billion. (Meltzer et al. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis 1999; 5:657-671; available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/meltzer.htm). These facts further highlight the need for new effective antivirals, such as the ones under development at Influmedix. The threat of drug-resistant strains, the high cost of the manufacturing Tamiflu, and the need to develop multiple strategies for treating the virus, provide a compelling argument for the development of new anti influenza drugs.